The biggest reasons why programmatic is predicted to boom over the next decade

2024 was a banner year for advertising, with global ad spend hitting $1 trillion a year ahead of schedule, according to estimates from GroupM.

But the programmatic advertising boom, fueled by CTV, retail media and audio, may just be getting started.

A Polaris Market Research report published this winter projects that the global programmatic advertising market will grow from almost $11 billion in 2024 to just over $13 billion this year — and by 2034, it’s expected to reach nearly $117 billion, an 800% jump over the next decade.

“Advertisers are using extensive data to enhance their campaigns, thereby improving return on investment (ROI),” the report said. “This surge in demand is projected to propel the expansion of programmatic advertising platforms and increase their market presence.”

Specifically, the report noted two key reasons for the growth: increasing use by small and medium-sized businesses, as well as accelerating internet access around the world.

But those aren’t the only drivers. Josh Goodin, managing director at Konetiq, points to the shift from linear to programmatic TV, as well as the potential for Google’s “stranglehold” over the industry to wane as a result of its various antitrust cases.

“We could see more and more budget flow from search to channels like display, digital TV and online video,” he tells The Current.

The (small) business of programmatic

Polaris’s report noted that more of these businesses are embracing programmatic because of its “scalability, affordability and targeted approach.” As more enter the market, more variety will be present in ads and audiences within the programmatic ecosystem.

And the opportunity is vast: in 2023, there were over 33 million small businesses (defined as having fewer than 500 employees) established in the U.S. alone, according to the Small Business Administration.

“Currently there are tens of thousands of small and even medium-sized businesses that are just not buying media at all,” Goodin says. “I think that as media progressively becomes more democratized by lowering the overall barriers to entry, more and more brands and small agencies will begin incorporating [programmatic] into their media plans.”

Andrea Kwiatek, director of strategic partnerships at Goodway Group, says that many programmatic platforms are already lowering the barrier to entry by evolving to meet the needs of these businesses — such as iterating on self-serve platforms with little to no spend thresholds.

Of course, AI innovation is helping to drive efficiency in programmatic, which could benefit small and medium-sized businesses in the long term, Kwiatek says.

“As marketers aim for enhanced targeting and personalization, interactive content and measuring performance, the programmatic platforms allow SMBs to achieve their goals,” she says.

The world wide web

The global expansion of internet access has also “led to a substantial increase in digital advertising, which has led to the rising demand for programmatic advertising platforms,” according to the Polaris report.

No region is perhaps a better example of this than India.

“India’s economy and internet coverage are growing at a breakneck pace,” Goodin says. “India could become a major factor in the next 10 years.”

Fixed wireless access devices are growing in popularity in the region, allowing rural residents to access fast 5G internet. That’s created the perfect conditions for ad-supported streaming to break through.

“India has long been seen as a potential difference maker in the streaming wars, given its immense population,” Brandon Katz, entertainment industry strategist at Parrot Analytics, previously told The Current.

The streaming surge isn’t limited to India, though. GroupM projects that streaming TV ad revenue will surpass that of linear by 2029. Goodin goes a step further though: He believes all TV will be bought programmatically, at least in the U.S., within the next decade.

“The likelihood this does not happen seems near zero to me,” he says. “[Linear TV] is the last major hanger-on to the offline ecosystem. … The big publishers’ margins and absolute revenue are diminished in the face of waning interest in the traditional media spaces like broadcast and cable TV.”