Navigating the political ad spend surge in the Golden Quarter

With the U.S. presidential election entering its final stretch and retailers gearing up for their Golden Quarter, we are seeing parallels in how political and commercial teams employ similar tactics to deliver success. As Democrats and Republicans look to take full advantage of an estimated $10.2 billion in political ad spend this cycle, they are adopting the channels, strategies and data-driven approaches beloved by marketers in the commercial world to target and woo voters. So, how is this playing out?

Well, what may be bad news for retailers could be welcome news for election advertising. With the economy being the No. 1 election issue, concerns around inflation and unemployment may put consumer buying decisions on the back burner until after the election. With purchasing plans on hold, political messages may garner more attention than those Golden Quarter sales promotions. And the key to success is targeting and messaging.

Understand sentiments to understand audiences

When it comes to campaigning, understanding up-to-the-minute voter sentiment is critical. Get into their hearts and minds, and you can then deliver advertising that resonates with them using the platforms they prefer to engage with.

By collecting surveys taken on mobile devices, political agencies can see, measure and track real-time changes in sentiment after key moments — such as a candidate’s perception lift after a debate. Using those insights, an agency can boost political ad strategies by reaching hyper-targeted audiences in real time.

A survey of nearly 66,000 people, for example, offered a window into how President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for reelection changed the race. Male voters were 70% more likely than female voters to shift allegiance to former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, 18- to 34-year-old former Trump supporters were now twice as likely to back Vice President Kamala Harris than overall prior Trump supporters, the poll found. It is swings like these that have critical implications for targeting, messaging and reengaging voters whose allegiances have changed.

The growing value of screens — indoor and outdoor

Research has also identified that voter receptivity to political ads can be two times higher when consumed on voters’ preferred media. Understanding their channel preference makes a difference in whether a message is heard, and it’s why connected TV (CTV) has become a key election weapon.

Traditionally, the lion’s share of political ad investment has focused on broadcast-first media. But with media fragmentation shifting viewers away from linear platforms to CTV, there’s been an enormous growth in CTV budgets this election. We’ve already seen it account for around 14% of ad spend up to the end of August and become the second-most-invested-in channel. But this shouldn’t be a surprise. With imagery and emotion playing a vital role in any election, CTV’s ability to offer big-screen brand-building and messaging alongside precise targeting and measurement makes it an effective vehicle for reaching voters.

This impact and targeting ability is also being leveraged on even bigger screens via digital out-of-home (DOOH). Non-interruptive, visually impactful, and allowing engaging messages to be activated and modified easily, key voter audiences can be reached in the localities where they live or work. With CTV assets easily adapted for DOOH, it complements the in-house medium, ensuring consistent messages are reinforced in environments that are part of people’s daily lives.

AI is speeding up reaction times

2024 also marks the first U.S. election season when predictive AI is available, and the technology is transforming political campaigns. Platforms that use AI allow political advertisers to build real-time voter audiences optimized for specific outcomes. Models that learn in-flight mean that decisions around campaign targeting, delivery, performance and uplift are constantly improved. And this ability to be fluid and react quickly in today’s fast-paced political-campaign world is essential. AI is allowing parties to adapt rapidly to opportunities and events that shift voter mindsets and can alter the course of elections.

Nowhere is this more relevant than for identifying dynamic audiences. Increasingly, AI can help with more precise targeting to help find and reach key undecided voters, including those who have become recently undecided or persuadable voters — especially in swing states and key battlegrounds. That just under 12,000 votes made all the difference in Georgia last time is testament to the importance of precise targeting. Over an election campaign where opinions frequently change, understanding real-time sentiments and then instantly curating a precise audience to message can make the difference.

Whether you are selling products or influencing voters in this Golden Quarter, the marketing fundamentals remain the same: Know your audience, reach them in their key environments and deliver messages that resonate based on fresh insights. What has changed this year is the ability to react in real time by taking advantage of today’s technologies and platforms to deliver hyper-targeted campaigns that capture voter attention. This is what’s driving this election’s unprecedented ad spending. It’ll be interesting to see what new tools are at the disposal of political marketers in future elections.

This op-ed represents the views and opinions of the author and not of The Current, a division of The Trade Desk, or The Trade Desk. The appearance of the op-ed on The Current does not constitute an endorsement by The Current or The Trade Desk.