Will they, won’t they ban TikTok? Advertisers mull alternatives

After proving it had no problem pulling TikTok from the U.S. on Saturday, owner Bytedance gave Americans a short-lived taste of life without the popular social video app. Although the app was gone for just a few hours, its lack of presence was felt across all social media platforms as people lamented its demise.

For now, TikTok has a reprieve. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday that gave the app a 75-day delay against legal prosecution. While it makes sense that direct competitors like Meta and Google could be the biggest beneficiaries of migrating ad dollars as TikTok’s future remains unclear, the entire digital ad ecosystem could receive a boost as brands become wary of investing in an app that will remain under heavy scrutiny.

“People might want to spend more time streaming shows, reading their favorite creator’s newsletter or on a completely different kind of platform,” says Minda Smiley, eMarketer senior analyst. “The whole media ecosystem stands to gain in some capacity, especially considering so much time is spent on TikTok.” 

In April 2024, President Joe Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA), which allows the government to ban foreign-owned apps that could be a threat to national security. Under this law, TikTok had to be sold to a non-Chinese company or stop operating in the U.S. by January 19. The Biden administration did not enforce the legal restrictions. Meanwhile, Trump has indicated he believe a deal could be made where the U.S. would receive a 50 percent stake in the company. Still, whether the Chinese government would approve a sale or divesture of the app remains to be seen.

U.S. adults 18 to 54 spend the most time on TikTok out of all the social platforms, averaging about 51 minutes per day according to eMarketer. It predicts that most of the users will migrate to Instagram Reels, Facebook Reels or YouTube Shorts, given the overlap in user base. Creators may even consider other unlikely platforms further to protect their businesses. For example, eMarketer is seeing a push into LinkedIn that could grow if TikTok is banned.

“The industry is becoming more mature and as that's happening, for the bigger creators, it’s forcing them to rely less on social media in general, ” Smiley says. “Whether it's their own newsletters, their own merchandise, their own brands, or even trying to strike CTV deals, it’s this idea of having a lot of different revenue streams.”

This means ad dollars will flow to other places, with eMarketer predicting 22.4 percent of TikTok’s revenue going to Instagram, 17.1 percent to Facebook and 10.7 percent going to YouTube.

Meta, with its social shopping platform and AI-enhanced Advantage Plus ad offering, is the easiest substitute, says Shamsul Chowdhury, Jellyfish EVP of paid social. He predicts up to 70 to 80 percent of TikTok ad revenue could go to Instagram and Facebook Reels due to the similarity of content.

“Trying to do a like for like, I think Meta will definitely be the beneficiary for TikTok going away,” he says.

But YouTube in particular can offer an alternative for online searches, points out Curiosity creative director of social Anthony Trimpe. Two out of five Americans use TikTok as a search engine according to Adobe. As YouTube moves more into the CTV space, it may also tap into those diverted TikTok budget there as well.

“Short-form content is here to stay,” he explains. “Mixing in long-form content and optimizing search on YouTube between both of them — YouTube proper and Shorts — is a sound strategy. So, I think there's a lot to gain from being on that platform.”

Other social media platforms like Snapchat, LinkedIn and Reddit could stand to get another 18.3 percent piece. Even CTV could see about 12.9 percent of TikTok’s ad dollars. Other channels could benefit from the rest of the revenue split amongst them, according to eMarketer.

“As silly as it might sound, (a ban) could literally force people to want to do more off of their screen,” Smiley says. 

Still, there are concerns that TikTok’s algorithmic excellence at creating a customized For You section can’t be replicated. Intrepid Travel has seen the most success at finding Millennial and Gen Z travel-minded users on TikTok compared to other platforms. For example, its Instagram account has amassed 366,000 followers since June 2013. However, its TikTok is already at 124,100 followers despite just being a year old.

Intrepid has noticed small businesses like theirs stand out more against hotel chains and tourism boards, giving them visibility without having big brand budgets. Marketing communications company MGH found 60 percent of TikTok users have been interested in visiting a new destination after seeing a post about it on the platform.

“The level of personalization was so much better than anything else we'd seen and the algorithm was so fast and dynamic,” says Leigh Barnes, Intrepid Travel President of the Americas. “You just saw your feed being so different and learning so fast from your behaviors. It was so dynamic and gave you what you wanted at that point in time. As a brand and a business, you just saw your content get rich in numbers and — when it hit the mark — explode so fast.”

Because the ban is just in the U.S., Intrepid won’t give up on TikTok right away considering it’s still popular overseas in Europe and Canada. The videos are easily repurposed on similar platforms without requiring many additional resources.

“It would just be a pivot to what platform comes next, and really watching and working and testing and learning,” Barnes says. “Initially, there'll be a dip, but I don't think it'd be catastrophic. Then we'd move to where we see opportunities.”

But more importantly, it’s teaching the entire industry that even if a platform seems to become the holy grail of marketing, it’s not worth putting all your budget and effort behind one thing.

“Diversification of platforms is so important,” Jellyfish’s Chowdhury says. “Putting all your eggs in one basket, you never know what might happen.”