5 Minutes with DSPolitical’s Mark Jablonowski

It would be an understatement to say this year’s U.S. presidential election has been unpredictable, the latest development being President Biden dropping out of the race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to top the Democratic ticket. U.S. political ad spending was already expected to reach record highs this year, with Emarketer projecting that spend could surpass $12 billion, more than the $9.5 billion spent in 2020 and nearly triple the $4.25 billion in 2016. Now that an unexpected November match is on the horizon, campaign spending will undoubtedly surge as they see a flurry of donations.

On the frontlines of all the campaign chaos is DSPolitical — the Democratic-focused voter targeting arm of Optimal agency. For President and CTO Mark Jablonowski, this election cycle has offered more than just “whiplash” for voters and media buyers; it’s also been a breeding ground for many surprises and firsts when it comes to the candidates’ media campaigns.

Jablonowski namely predicts that connected TV (CTV) will see the biggest uptick in ad spend from both parties, as “advertising is available [and] addressable at scale” for the first time during a presidential election. This sentiment is in line with predictions from Emarketer, which projected investment in the channel to grow by 506% compared to 2020.

“Unduplicated addressable CTV inventory is up roughly five times over the last four years,” Jablonowski says. “That availability, with the proliferation of smart TVs and the adoption of streaming and changing viewing habits of the American electorate, you’re seeing a rush to take advantage of the largest, most influential screen in the house in a way that wasn’t available during the last presidential election.”

Jablonowski also tells The Current which channel he is surprised to see growing in the political space, why linear TV remains prominent on campaign plans despite ad waste and engaging "persuadable” voters.

The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.

First off, what’s been running through your mind amid such an unpredictable election cycle?

This is a tumultuous time. We’re seeing the landscape shifting on a day-to-day basis. This is something that is really an extreme but also indicative of politics. You don’t know what’s going to happen in the next hour, let alone the next week, a lot of the time. So campaigns are uniquely positioned and poised to be able to react quickly. But when you have so many game-changing events happening one after another, you’re almost in a position of whiplash, where you’re reacting to a reaction of a reaction. I think it’s a really difficult and rapidly evolving situation. What was true 36 hours ago is not necessarily true today.

DSPolitical’s role extends far beyond the presidential race and touches thousands of campaigns, causes and candidates. How do you observe that such a momentous election year impacts those? Is there a trickle-down effect?

No question. The presidential race drives turnout better than anything else in America. By having new energy on the Democratic side, I fully expect to see a renewed interest in communicating with voters up and down the ballot. With the Democratic party rapidly coalescing around Harris, we are seeing unbridled enthusiasm.

Do you foresee political spend or focus considerably shifting now that the presidential race has itself shifted so dramatically?

I don’t think you’ll see direct media-mix allocation changes over Biden stepping out of the race. You will based on the electorate that is supporting one candidate or the other, and at the end of the day you need to reach voters wherever their eyeballs are at. There will be differences between Biden and Kamala in that regard, but it’s not going to be something where tomorrow it will be a different media mix than it was two days ago. It’s going to take time to see where the nuance ultimately is.

The broader trends, though, are really interesting. This will be the first presidential election where connected television (CTV) advertising is available [and] addressableat scale. In 2020, there was a little bit of addressable CTV advertising available. Unduplicated addressable CTV inventory is up roughly five times over the last four years. That availability, with the proliferation of smart TVs and the adoption of streaming and changing viewing habits of the American electorate, you’re seeing a rush to take advantage of the largest, most influential screen in the house in a way that wasn’t available during the last presidential election.

Are there other channels you’re seeing growth in?

CTV is the big story, but the one that surprised me is that we’re seeing growth in streaming audio. That’s something that wasn’t on my bingo sheet for 2024. But with increased availability and the pipes that create identity layers between the publishers and the buyers, we’re able to do a lot more in the streaming audio and podcast space.

There is still a lot of political spend on linear TV. even though streaming is growing. Do you think there is a lot of spend on linear that should be diverted elsewhere?

There can be and should be, yes. Linear TV is ingrained in politics and it’s hard to change that mentality. Politics is one industry that is forced to rapidly innovate. But, unfortunately, we don’t always back up innovations with serious spend. The political world would benefit from taking a page out of the corporate marketers’ playbook, by decidedly investing less in linear TV. They are using much more advanced media mixes that are more reflective of where the American consumer, or voter, is spending their time. We have to get into a world where digital and paid digital media is at the big kids’ table. This year may truly be the first year that it is, but there is still so much waste that goes into linear because that’s the way it’s always been done. It creates an ecosystem where largely older voters are getting inundated with ad spots, but ultimately you’re reaching a very small portion of your persuadable audience. It’s not distributed very evenly.

Do you think CTV political spend will eventually overtake linear?

At some point. I don’t know when, but at some point everything is going to be addressable. At some point, hopefully, we will all be transacting on impressions as opposed to points, and understanding the true reach and frequency of a target audience. But we’re not there yet unfortunately.

Based on data you’re seeing or observations you’ve made, are campaigns doing anything differently this year to target voters they may not have been doing four years ago, in terms of how they might be identifying young voters, swing voters, etc?

There’s the question of four years ago, and then there’s the question of right now. With Biden stepping aside, we’ve seen that younger voters are excited. The age question was a large barrier for a lot of Gen Z voters. So that could be a powerful movement just from the last couple of days.

Outside of that, there are a couple changes we might see in targeting. There are conversations happening about how to capture the anti-MAGA Republicans who feel they have been left aside from their political party. It’s about finding a way to engage those voters.